Read on
Dutch, Norwegian and Swedish researchers have developed a machine learning model that can predict the future risks of armed conflict in the Horn of Africa up to 2050. The model takes into account the influence of climate change and future social and economic developments in the region.
Editorial office / Utrecht

In this region on Africa’s east coast, around 20 million people suffer from hunger due to prolonged drought, but the provision of food aid is hampered by armed conflicts, especially in Somalia and Ethiopia.

Researchers from Utrecht University, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), the Oslo Institute for Peace Research and the University of Uppsala wanted to know what effect climate change had on conflicts, using indicators such as soil moisture and rainfall. The model showed that it was mainly socio-economic factors, such as education and GDP, that were decisive in predicting conflict. The model also revealed that climate change will increase the risk of conflict in large parts of East Africa. To address this, climate adaptation and peace-building programmes that take environmental change into account are needed.

Read the full article on The Conversation website.

Image: NASA Johnson/Flickr, CC BY-SA